Evaluating LLMs: Determining Optimal Size for Identifying 5% Performance Drops

TL;DR: Most eval sets are sized by "what we had lying around", not by what they can actually detect. If your eval set is 50 traces and you are trying to catch a 5-point drop in pass rate, you are underpowered: the regression hides inside sampling noise more often than not, and you ship it green. A t

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