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AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines
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AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines

Home/Artificial Intelligence/AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines

I've recently updated towards substantially shorter AI timelines and much faster progress in some areas. [1] The largest updates I've made are (1) an almost 2x higher probability of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028 (I'm now a bit below 30% [2] while I was previously expecting around 15%; my guesse

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๐Ÿ“… Apr 6, 2026ยทโฑ 28 min readยทAI Alignment Forum โ†—
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